West Virginia’s caucus this morning ended at 12:30 PM, and it’s 18 delegates have been awarded to Huckabee! Given that Romney campaigned heavily in West Virginia, this is a good sign!
February 5, 2008
The BIG Day
It’s finally here – Super Tuesday. Personally, I’m relieved it’s here. This past week has been filled with ridiculous attacks between candidates and endless postulations from pundits on cable tv. I know, it’s my fault for watching all of these blowhards each night, but watching them is addictive and only slightly worse than cigarettes for your health. So what can we make of all of this?
We know that Mike has to win a number of Southern states to maintain viabiltiy as a candidate, and that assumes that Romney take a couple more states from McCain to keep him from entirely dominating the delegate count. Beyond winning some Southern states, Mike also has to win more than the Evangelical vote. His focus on taxes lately may help him here. If after Super Tuesday it has become clear to the country that Mike has only won the votes of Christians, then we’ve got a real problem. It’s not good for the party or the country, and it’s certainly not good for Mike going forward, to be seen as the theocratic option. We all know that he’s done a great job of not legislating his faith, but there are unfortunately tens of millions of people who wouldn’t even consider Mike if they felt that he’d won primaries only because of the Evangelical wing of the party.
If Mike doesn’t do well, it will be interesting to see who he’ll effect the most, McCain or Romney. Crosswalk.com has an outstanding article about how Mike will perhaps become more of a problem to McCain than to Romney as the race continues. Will Huckabee’s presence in the South steal enough votes to keep McCain from becoming the clear nominee? Will Mike’s presence take enough social conservatives from Romney to doom is candidacy? Will Mike pull enough votes in the South to earn “comeback status” from the pundits?
We’ll see tonight and I’ll post as soon as the results become clear.
February 1, 2008
A message from Mike
Thought this was worth sharing in case you missed it… from an e-mail Mike sent to his supporters today.
We are in this race to win despite the desperate efforts by the Romney campaign to try and say that “a vote for me is a vote for McCain”. Actually, a vote for me is a vote for me!
We have outlasted Rudy, Fred, and others who were supposed to be the winners. Only 8% of the Republican delegates have been selected, and we have about the same number of delegates as McCain or Romney. We are in it to win.
The Romney campaign knows this and they are running scared.
So far the media has with a few exceptions, been content to sell this sham of a story to their viewers and listeners. You would think that under this coordinated assault, we would be sinking in the polls nationally.
Not so. FOX News has us tied with Gov. Romney in 2nd place nationally in a new poll of registered voters.
What’s more, in Tennessee, Georgia, Missouri, Alabama, Arkansas and Oklahoma, recent polls have us in first or tied for first.
We can win. We will win.
February 1, 2008
Giving it his all
Mike Huckabee is giving everything he’s got heading into next week’s Super Tuesday voting, and for any that thought he might be ready to toss in the towel, he’s proven that’s not the case. He did a fantastic job in Wednesday’s debate on at the Reagan Presidential Library, particularly his answer to an odd question about who Ronald Reagan would endorse (see video below). Today he was quoted as saying if this is in fact a two-man race, then the two men are him and McCain. There is some truth to this given the number of Southern states where the two are neck-and-neck. Tomorrow, Mike will be campaigning in Alabama and will participate in the MTV/MySpace “Closing Arguement” debatewhich airs at 6pm EST on MTV or online on MySpace. It should be a good forum for Mike who won the Iowa caucuses in part because of the large turnout of Gen X and Gen Y supporters.
February 1, 2008
Just for the fun of it…
January 30, 2008
6 days and counting…
Well as expected, Mike placed a close fourth in Florida after he essentially abandoned campaigning there. In retrospect, it was a smart move. It turned out to be what everyone expected – the showdown between McCain and Romney and the last call (and first call, for that matter) for Giuliani. Fourth isn’t great , although it’s what his campaign staff said they’d be content with and the media spotlight on the others provided Mike a great opportunity to campaign elsewhere.
With less than a week to go until Super Tuesday, Mike Huckabee shows no sign of slowing down. He was quoted today as saying,
“This boy isn’t on the ropes. There’s a saying in the South: ‘It ain’t the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog,’”
He genuinely seems to like campaigning and raised $100k at one fundraiser alone this morning. Given his ability to campaign so frugally, that money will go a long way. And since he’s currently polling at or near the top of many states (GA, AL, WV, MO, AR, & TN), we have reason to believe that come next Wednesday the pundits may be talking about a possible Huckabee comeback.
Or not. If McCain gets a bump in those states as a result of his Florida win then the reports may be about McCain locking up the nomination and the pundits can speculate on whether or not he’ll choose Mike as a VP candidate. It wouldn’t be a bad choice for him given Mike’s popularity in the South and with Evangelicals. If you’ve read my past posts you’ll find that I’m not great at political prophesy (I predicted a Romney win in Florida) but I’m certain of this – the next week should be fun to watch! Stay tuned.
January 27, 2008
Florida Primary – what we can expect
If you’ve been following my posts, you already know that while Huckabee is campaigning hard in Florida, his real strategy lies with states like Alabama, Georgia and Missouri. But what should we expect to happen in Tuesday’s Florida primary?
Despite mixed polls from this past week showing either Romney or McCain in the lead, the state will very likely be won by Mitt Romney. Rasmussen Reports has him taking a significant lead over McCain in today’s poll, largely due to economic concerns. An article in Time Magazine points out what Rasmussen doesn’t – that Romney’s cash affords him enough TV ads to make a bigger dent in a state the size of Florida than the ads did in other smaller states. The same Time article also suggests, curiously, that Evangelical Protestants may be changing their allegiances from Huckabee to Romney, which would highly surprise me given the very strong theological differences between those faiths. Either way, a Romney win will serve him well going into Super Tuesday and may further deflate McCain’s front runner status.
And for Mike? Well ironically, since Mike is tied for first in Alabama with McCain and in a close race with McCain in Missouri as well, a Florida Romney win may help with Mike’s Super Tuesday strategy. We’ll see. There’s one thing that we can conclude with certainty – for those of us who consider ourselves political junkies, this primary season has already been a wild ride! On to Super Tuesday!
January 27, 2008
A GREAT Article
Have you read this article from Catholic.org yet on Mike? If not, do so. It’s fantastic.
January 27, 2008
What’s happening with Huckabee?
Mike Huckabee is remaining remarkably active during this two week span between South Carolina and Super Tuesday. In fact you’ll be able to see him on TV tomorrow morning if tune into Fox’s “Fox News Sunday” at approximately 9:00 a.m. ET, and CNN’s “Late Edition” at approximately 11 a.m. ET.
As I’ve mentioned before, this Tuesday’s Florida primary will probably land him a third or fourth place spot, but some key Southern states may be great opportunities for him to rebound on February 5th.
Here’s a solid summary of Mike’s new strategy from Bloomberg.com yesterday:
Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) — Mike Huckabee, short of money and facing long odds to win the Republican presidential nomination, is plotting a guerrilla campaign to pick off delegates and stay in any protracted race.
The former Arkansas governor, who has cut salaries for top advisers, is prepared to pinch pennies.
“This campaign knows how to live off a budget and a shoestring budget,” campaign manager Chip Saltsman said.
Huckabee is homing in on the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday states Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri, Oklahoma, West Virginia and his native Arkansas, Saltsman said. Those states have 333 of the 1,191 delegates the nominee will need.
Huckabee’s candidacy may most hurt former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney — the two have openly clashed — and that could set him up as a potential running mate for John McCain, should the Arizona senator win the nomination. That may be a tough ticket to assemble, according to Michael Tanner, a political scholar at the Cato Institute, a Washington-based libertarian research group.
A few encouraging notes… Mike got a solid endorsement from the Missouri Right to Life yesterday. As I noted earlier this week, a Missouri win would be fantastic since it’s a winner-take-all state with quite a few delegates. Also, he showed up to talk with 300 people at Samford University in Birmingham today, only to find 2200 people had shown up! His message is still taking hold to new listeners, even as the media shifts its focus to McCain and Romney.
Also, I don’t know HOW I missed this during the Michigan campaign, but have you seen YouTube’s number one ranked video on Mitt Romney? Many of the videos on YouTube can be either uninformed, juvenile or insulting, but I’ll admit – this one had me chuckling.
January 25, 2008
Debate not great, but good
Last night’s debate was different from previous ones in a number of ways. To begin, it was remarkably docile – no going after each other, which was a nice change. Unfortunately, another element that was different was Mike’s approach to answering questions. Still seeking credibility as a conservative, he gave some good serious answers but people new to him didn’t get to see the fresh, populist, relatability that won him so many hearts in early debates. Admittedly, it’s a tough balance to strike – showing that he’s credible on policy issues but not part of the “establishment.” He did a very nice job, but something was a little lacking, and it may have to do with the fact that he’s been focusing on so many other Southern states (which is the right thing to do). The most notable change, however, was how unbelievably improved Romney was in the debate. He stole the show. And while many voters like myself don’t trust him, he certainly projected trustworthiness last night.
What will the effect on Mike be? I’m not sure it will change anything. He realistically won’t win Florida. That will go to McCain or Romney, but there’s good news from Rasmussen today that indicates Mike’s strategy may be taking hold - he is leading in Georgia and tied for the lead in Alabama. If losing Florida means he can come out on top of a few more states on Feb 5th, then it’s well worth the trade off.
Only 11 days until Super Tuesday!
